【速度】
Enter the B20
Business hopes to be heard at next week’s G20 summit
【计时1】
WHEN the G20, a group of governments from the world’s biggest economies, meets in Los Cabos, Mexico, later this month, business will have a seat at the table. The bosses of more than 300 large companies will be at the same beach resort for the fourth summit of the B20, a group that tries to persuade governments to be more business-friendly. For the first time, B20 leaders will be invited to address the assembled politicians.
They will give advice on matters ranging from infrastructure to jobs, but the B20’s most useful role may be as a watchdog. The politicians at these powwows have a reputation for saying one thing and doing another (or nothing) when they return home. To hold them to account, the B20’s chairman, Alejandro Ramírez, touts a new “performance dashboard”.
This dashboard, prepared with input from the International Chamber of Commerce, the McKinsey Global Institute and the University of Toronto, will track each G20 country’s progress in keeping promises made at each year’s summit. Initially, the dashboard will focus only on commitments directly relevant to business.
The Economist has seen a draft dashboard, minus the country names. It tracks progress made between the 2010 and 2011 G20 summits on 13 categories of pledge. They include improving the financial system (by implementing Basel 3 capital-adequacy rules), fighting climate change, promoting free trade and curbing corruption.
[227 words]
【计时2】
It makes dismal reading, in places. On trade, only four of the G20 did what they said they would. Five made no progress at all, or regressed. Pledges to fight corruption, manage exchange rates sensibly and price fossil fuels to reflect their carbon emissions were also widely breached.
The dashboard ought to embarrass people who deserve to be embarrassed. But although it has been shown to the G20 governments, the B20 is dithering about whether to publish it. Fans of good government will be disappointed. What use is a watchdog that does not bark?
For now Mr Ramírez, whose day job is boss of Cinépolis, a Mexican cinema chain, will say only that Australia has performed best, making progress on every pledge, whereas Argentina has performed poorly. No surprises there. Australia has grown rich selling food and minerals to China, and is rolling out the welcome mat for foreign talent (see next article). Argentina, in contrast, cannot even keep honest inflation statistics, and has a nasty habit of nationalising foreign companies.
Following a disappointing B20 last year in Cannes, when the politicians lectured the bosses but did not listen, Mr Ramírez has been doing all sorts of sensible things to make the B20 seem more than just a club of rich grumblers. He has invited NGOs and other outsiders to join its deliberations. Barbara Stocking, the head of Oxfam UK, is on the B20’s food-security task force. John Evans, a veteran trade-union official, is on its employment task force. But a pressure group is measured by results, not intentions. The B20 has yet to prove itself.
[266 words]
My big fat Greek divorce
How and whether Greece might exit is the biggest and fattest uncertainty of all
【计时3】
ON JUNE 17th the brinkmanship on the Aegean will take another twist. Even if the New Democracy party manages to form a government it will seek to renegotiate the terms set earlier this year by European creditor nations for Greece’s second bail-out. If instead the victor is Syriza, the left-of-centre group bent on scrapping the deal, the markets fear that this will lead ineluctably to Greece leaving the euro and inflicting heavy collateral damage on the rest of the euro zone on the way. But there is nothing automatic about the precise timing and mechanism of a “Grexit”.
If Alexis Tsipras, Syriza’s leader, were unilaterally to announce a debt moratorium, as he has threatened to do, then this would almost certainly precipitate a swift exit. All bail-out funds would be cut off. With Greece defaulting on its debt, the European Central Bank (ECB) would no longer be prepared to permit the provision of liquidity for Greece’s tottering banks. If the Bank of Greece did not comply with the ECB’s ruling, Greece could in the last resort be cut off from the euro zone’s payments system, points out Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan. The Greek government would have to reintroduce the drachma, which would immediately plunge in value against the euro.
But Mr Tsipras would have to form a coalition and would be constrained by his partners. And he has not campaigned to leave the euro, which remains popular in Greece. He is calculating that Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will blink at the prospect of the wider costs of a Greek exit. He believes that she will not want to be seen as forcing Greece out of the euro, not least since on strict legal grounds a country can neither leave nor be forced to leave the currency union.
[300 words]
【计时4】
Even a Syriza victory will thus probably lead in the first place to negotiations. While these are taking place, there would be no bail-out money to fill the hole in Greece’s primary budget (ie, excluding interest). But Greece would still need funding to avoid default, since it must also service debt and redeem maturing bonds, notably one held by the ECB due to be repaid in August. One suggestion is that the Europeans could channel bail-out financing to meet such payments through the “escrow account”, a segregated account at the Bank of Greece set up as part of the second bail-out to ensure that Greece honours its debts. A precedent for this was set in May, after the first inconclusive election, when a payment of